The Final Five

By: Ian Rose | April 26th, 2009

The SPL has split into its top and bottom halves, and once again, the Caley Thistle find themselves on the lower, fighting to stay in even that. As it stands, we are four points ahead of Europe-and-Scottish-Cup-final-bound Falkirk in the race for survival. Here are our final five fixtures. I promise none of them will turn out to be Tigh’s wife.

2 May: St. Mirren v. Caley Thistle
10 May: Caley Thistle v. Hamilton
13 May: Motherwell v. Caley Thistle
16 May: Kilmarnock v. Caley Thistle
23 May: Caley Thistle v. Falkirk

Which means (holy hell) the last match of the season might well decide who goes down. We have four matches of work to avoid that being an issue, so let’s look at how we’ve fared in these fixtures lately.

St. Mirren v. Caley:
The Good News is that in our most recent meeting, the Caley ended up on top by 2-1. The bad news is that its been two seasons and three matches since we’ve been able to get a win in Paisley. Overall, though, our record is about split with the Buddies, and despite the recent Andy Dorman phenomenon, they don’t have a lot in the way of goalscorers. Nor do we. Could easily be a draw.

Caley v. Hamilton:
Our three meetings this season have ended in two 1-0 wins for the Accies and one recent 1-1 draw, so only a fool would bet on many goals here. On form, Caley is definitely looking better than the rapidly sinking Accies, but home has been none too comfortable for Caley so far.

Motherwell v. Caley:
We’re a bit unlucky to draw an away match with the one side in the bottom half not seriously threatened with relegation, and it’s never fun to have to play on the joke of a pitch at Fir Park, but we’ll have to make due. The Caley have gone six league matches without so much as a point against the Well, and haven’t won on their ground since 2006, when we pulled off a 4-1 shocker on three second-half goals. The toughest match of the post-season, though maybe the least important, since all the others are basically relegation six-pointers.

Kilmarnock v. Caley:
No fixture in Caley’s history has produced as many goals as the matchup with Kilmarnock. In the past four years, we have fought out a 4-3, a 3-3, two 3-1s, and a 4-1. There will be goals. In the past two seasons, its been all to the home side, but Caley’s road form this season, and Killie’s astonishing inconsistency, should make this anyone’s fitba game.

Caley v. Falkirk:
This one, folks, is for all the damned marbles. If we’ve maintained our four-point lead to this point, then we can call it a survival party, but does anyone believe, the way this season has been, that it won’t come down to the final 90 minutes? Last time we met, Falkirk wiped the pitch with us, 4-0, and they’ll come in with all the confidence in the world if the margin is less than three points. This is a match that we need to concentrate on winning before it starts, but if it comes down to it, it will be an impossible one to predict if only because neither team has consistently shown it deserves either survival or the drop.

This is a season without a Gretna, without a team just begging to go down. There are five teams that could realistically be facing the likes of Ross County next season, and we are most certainly one of them. I wish it wasn’t a week away, because to be honest, I’m already nervous. Mon the Caley.